Saturday, September 27, 2025 | 12:00 PM ET | Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS | FS1
The Storyline
After three impressive non-conference victories at home, the Knights (3-0) hit the road for their Big 12 Conference opener against Kansas State (1-3) in what marks a pivotal moment for both programs. Scott Frost’s return to UCF continues to pay dividends as the Knights have defied preseason expectations, while the Wildcats are looking to rebound from early-season struggles in their conference home opener.
This matchup carries extra significance as UCF seeks its second-ever 1-0 start in Big 12 play, having achieved that milestone last season with a dramatic comeback victory at TCU. For Kansas State, hosting UCF represents an opportunity to right the ship after a disappointing 1-3 start that has left fans questioning the program’s direction.
Tale of Two Seasons
UCF: Exceeding Expectations
The Knights have looked nothing like the team many predicted would finish at the bottom of the Big 12. UCF concluded its non-conference slate with a resounding 34-9 victory over Bill Belichick-led North Carolina, securing a 3-0 start to the 2025 schedule and for the third straight season. More impressively, UCF’s defense has yet to allow a touchdown in the first half of any game this season, allowing just one field goal to North Carolina through three games.
Under Scott Frost’s guidance, the Knights have shown remarkable defensive prowess, ranking among the nation’s elite in several categories. UCF has the sixth-ranked scoring defense (8.7 points per game), a statistic that speaks to the program’s renewed commitment to fundamentals and discipline.
The offense, while not always explosive, has been efficient when needed. Quarterback Tayven Jackson has stepped up admirably, particularly in clutch moments. UCF set the tone early, scoring in 13 plays on the game’s opening drive to take a 7-0 lead. North Carolina’s first possession ended in an interception as Horace Lockett batted the pass at the line, setting up Nyjalik Kelly for a one-handed pick.
Kansas State: Searching for Answers
The Wildcats’ season has been a tale of missed opportunities and close defeats. The Wildcats lost against the Arizona Wildcats in their last game, 23-17, continuing a pattern of struggles that has defined their early season. Kansas State is 120th in the FBS in third-down percentage (31.3%), a concerning statistic that has hampered their ability to sustain drives.
Despite the struggles, there are reasons for optimism. Quarterback Avery Johnson showed promise last season under the tutelage of current offensive coordinator Matt Wells, who tutored Avery Johnson to a school-record 25 touchdown passes, while his sophomore signal caller ranked fifth in school history in passing yards (2,712) and completions (217).
The Wildcats’ rushing attack has shown flashes, and they’ll be looking to establish that ground game against a UCF defense that has been stout but will face its biggest test yet in Big 12 play.
Key Matchups to Watch
UCF’s Ground Game vs K-State’s Run Defense
The Knights’ running game ranks 38th in the FBS (202.3 yards per game), while the Wildcats give up 175.8 rushing yards per game (110th). This could be the area where UCF finds the most success, especially if they can establish early drives and control the tempo.
Red Zone Efficiency
UCF’s 28th-ranked scoring offense averages 39.7 points per game, but they’ll need to be efficient in the red zone against a Kansas State defense that will be playing with desperation at home.
Third Down Conversions
Kansas State is 120th in the FBS in third-down percentage (31.3%), and will be facing the 30th-ranked UCF third-down defense (28.9%). The Wildcats’ struggles on third down have been a major factor in their offensive woes, and UCF’s defense should be able to capitalize.
What to Expect
For UCF
The Knights will likely approach this game with a conservative, field-position oriented strategy. Their defense has been exceptional in first-half situations, and they’ll want to force Kansas State into difficult down-and-distance situations. Expect UCF to lean heavily on their running game and short, high-percentage passing concepts.
Scott Frost understands the importance of this game for Big 12 positioning. UCF is in search of its second season with a 1-0 start to league play after erasing a 21-point deficit at TCU for a 35-34 victory in 2024. The experience from that dramatic comeback should serve the Knights well in what could be another tight conference contest.
For Kansas State
The Wildcats desperately need a statement victory to salvage their season. Playing at home after a bye week, they should be well-prepared and motivated. Coming off its first of three bye weeks during the 2025 season, Kansas State looks to regroup in its Big 12 home opener.
Expect Matt Wells to try to get Avery Johnson in rhythm early with short completions and designed runs. The Wildcats will likely test UCF’s secondary with some vertical shots, particularly if they can establish any semblance of a running game.
The Bottom Line
This game represents more than just a conference opener—it’s a measuring stick for both programs. UCF has a chance to prove their early-season success wasn’t a fluke, while Kansas State needs a victory to keep their season from spiraling.
Oddsmakers give the Kansas State Wildcats the edge when they host the UCF Knights on Saturday, with Kansas State favored by 6.5 points. The total has been set at 49 points for this matchup.
However, the line feels generous given UCF’s defensive prowess and Kansas State’s offensive struggles. The Knights have the better defense, better coaching stability, and more momentum entering this contest.
Prediction: UCF’s defense should be able to limit Kansas State’s struggling offense. While the Wildcats will benefit from being at home after a bye week, the Knights’ superior play on both sides of the ball should be enough to secure their first Big 12 road victory of the season.
UCF 24, Kansas State 17
The Knights continue their surprising start to the season and position themselves well for Big 12 contention, while Kansas State’s season reaches a critical juncture that will define the remainder of their campaign.